A Majority in Arizona Supports Establishing Right to Abortion, Poll Finds

A majority of likely voters in Arizona said they planned to support an amendment to the state’s Constitution codifying “the fundamental right to an abortion,” according to the latest poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

The poll found that 58 percent of likely voters were in favor of the amendment, putting support above the 50 percent threshold needed to pass. The poll also found former President Donald J. Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the state, 50 percent to 45 percent.

The amendment, Proposition 139, would establish a fundamental right to abortion and prohibit the state from restricting or banning abortion before viability — the point at which a fetus can survive outside the uterus, generally around 24 weeks of pregnancy.

A little over one-third of voters in the state said they intended to vote no on the amendment.

The results are in line with recent polling in the state suggesting the ballot measure is likely to pass the threshold for support.

The amendment’s supporters see it as an important step to secure abortion access. Opponents say it goes too far by allowing abortions up until around 24 weeks of pregnancy. Arizona law currently allows abortions up until 15 weeks of pregnancy.

Majorities of voters across every demographic group said they intended to support the measure. Younger voters and college-educated voters were especially likely to be in favor of it.

Interestingly, more men than women planned to support the measure, 62 percent to 54 percent. Young men were especially likely to support the amendment.

“Being a man, I don’t have a dog in the fight necessarily, but I think abortion access is about taking care of people’s well-being,” said Gage Billick, 32, of Phoenix. “Abortion is important health care.”

Ms. Billick says he plans to vote in support of the measure and was motivated by the move by Arizona’s highest court this summer to reinstate an 1864 law that banned nearly all abortions. “That law was written before Arizona was even a state,” Mr. Billick said. “It was pretty shocking and un-American.”

The poll found some degree of bipartisan support. About 30 percent of Republicans said they would vote yes, along with a vast majority of Democrats.

Still, support for the amendment fell short of the 66 percent of Arizona voters who said they wanted abortion to be always or mostly legal.

These voters, who said they wanted abortion to be legal but planned to vote no, were more likely to be Republicans and Trump supporters. They were also more likely to be white voters without a college degree who support some access to abortion rights.

“I believe abortion should remain legal, particularly in cases where the health of the mother is concerned,” said Diane Fitzsimmons, 57, a real estate agent in Apache Junction. “I was OK with abortion in the first trimester, but this bill goes too far into pregnancy.”

Overall, 18 percent of voters in the state say abortion is the most important issue to them, a higher share than in Georgia or North Carolina. An overwhelming majority of voters who cited it as their most important issue said they thought Ms. Harris would do a better job handling abortion than Mr. Trump would.

The economy remains issue No. 1 for the largest share of voters in Arizona: About 30 percent said inflation or the economy was central to their vote. And Mr. Trump holds a wide advantage with those voters.

The amendment, which is one of several abortion-related ballot initiatives across the country this fall, is seen by Democrats as a potential opportunity to increase turnout, since abortion has come to be a motivating issue on the left.

Polling on ballot initiatives is notoriously challenging. Ballot language can be complicated for voters to understand to begin with, and they do not always understand which side accurately represents their views. Translating ballot language into a clear polling question adds another degree of complexity.